Sunday, September 25, 2022

Market Outlook and Expiry Express

  Expects market to open on a negative note on account of sharp decline across the global markets after the US Fed hiked interest rate by 75bps for a third consecutive time and signaled further aggressive tightening. US Dow Jones slipped over 500 points after the US Fed chairman said that the interest rate will continue hike till the inflation will cool down to 2% level from 8% currently. Moreover, the US Federal Reserve forecast showing rates at 4.4% by the end of 2022 and 4.6% in 2023 caught some off guard (current rate at 3.2%) which is ahead of previous expectation. European bourses closed higher (before US Fed rate decision) on Wednesday amid expectations of interest rate increases in the US and UK. Germany, France and UK Index gained over half percent each. Share market declines deepened from the open in Asia on Thursday amid diminishing odds of a soft economic landing after the US Federal Reserve hiked interest rates by 75 basis points and signalled further aggressive tightening. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Australia Index slipped 1% each. SGX Nifty declined 1% and traders likely to stay cautious in the market ahead of weekly Nifty and Bank Nifty F&O expiry today.

Nifty September future closed at 17731.45 with a premium of 13.10 point v/s 9.40 point premium in the last session.

·         Nifty futures OI decreased by 0.34% to 1.24 Cr and Bank Nifty futures OI increased by 9.60% to 22.18 Lakhs.

·         Nifty Put/Call Ratio (OI) decreased from 1.15 to 0.95 level.

·         India VIX was up by 2.79% from 18.79 to 19.32 levels. Volatility spiked ahead of global uncertainties and a tug of war between the bulls and bears.

·         On Options front, Maximum Call OI is at 18000 then 18500 strike while Maximum Put OI is at 17500 then 17000 strike. Call writing is seen 17800 then 18000 strike while Put writing is seen at 17800 then 17600 strike. Option data suggests a broader trading range in between 17200 to 18200 zones while an immediate range in between 17500 to 18000 zones


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